Iraq is the main issue in this election
Campaign advisors also give thoughts on 527s, AHPs
Copyright Association Trends-2004, Reprinted by Permission

Date
October 8, 2004




Plexus Consulting Group, LLC
1620 Eye Street, NW
Suite 210
Washington, DC 20006
Phone:  202-785-8940
Fax:      202-785-8949
Email:   info@plexusconsulting.com

While 527 nonprofits have become a facet in this campaign for the US presidency, the issues on which the presidential election will be won or lost are Iraq and the war on terrorism. This was the impression given by senior advisors to both the Bush and Kerry campaigns during two separate discussion groups this week.

Rob Hartwell, senior consultant for American Business Development Group and an advisor to President Bush, said the current administration's domestic agenda was rightfully shifted after 9/11, and homeland security and the war on terror are key reasons for Bush to be re-elected.

"One of the things Bush hasn't said enough, and that someone needs to say, is that there has not been one terrorist attack in America since 9/11...so, someone is doing their job," Hartwell said.

Jeff Trammell, a Florida attorney and a long-time Kerry advisor, said he has never seen an election that has so polarized the American public as this year's, and that swing states - states where the vote can go either way - have become very important in the race. He noted how 527 groups - nonprofits that are allowed to collect and spend money on campaigns so long as they are not connected to the campaigns - have become active in voter registration, especially in swing states. Trammell said that Sen. John Kerry, the Democrat candidate, is not connected to any 527 group. He said Kerry is for less money in the campaign process.

Hartwell also spoke about 527s and the "unprecedented amounts of soft money" raised for the 2004 campaigns. He suggested a need to go back to limits on soft money campaign contributions and to "regulate money for electioneering."

Trammell briefly discussed assn health plans, saying that his understanding of the issue was that some groups believe AHPs, which are supported by President Bush, would allow insurance companies to "cherrypick" those who will be insured. He said groups such as Blue Cross Blue Shield have pleaded with Congress not to pass such plans because it would destroy pools of insured that already exist.

Hartwell said AHPs were "a critical ingredient" to solving the nation's healthcare crisis, and that millions of American could be covered through their memberships in assns.

Answering a query on recent polls that show Democrats losing footing with traditional strongholds of the African-American and Catholic votes, Trammell said changing demographics might be the cause of that. However, he said Democrats seemingly are maintaining the same number of registrants, and that might be due to increasing number of socially liberal suburbanites. He stressed that the Democrat Party is very diverse.

Asked if the election would be won on social issues, Trammell said, "the role of the US as it relates to what happens in Iraq will win the election."

The discussions were organized by Plexus Consulting Group, a company that specializes in assn management and governance issues, and business relationships.